Investments

Your Role as a River Keeper : Responsible Stewardship of Your Family’s Wealth

/ Jesse Ogloff
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How do you think of your wealth? Do you see it as a dollar value on a screen or something alive and evolving over time.

I encourage clients to think of their wealth as a river – flowing, dynamic, and shaped by generations. Your river may have begun long before you were born, fed by the work and values of those who came before you, or perhaps it began as a small spring during your own lifetime.

Either way, this river – your river – can continue far beyond where we stand today, if it is cared for and tended with intention.  

Headwaters : The Source of Your Wealth

Every river begins with a spring. For many families, that spring was created by the grit and discipline of earlier generations – parents, grandparents, or even great-grandparents who laid the foundation for everything that flows downstream.

Today’s river, carries not only your financial capital but also the beliefs, habits, and stewardship from your family story. Recognizing these headwaters helps guide your financial decisions with gratitude and perspective.

Tending the River in Your Stewardship Today

Being a river keeper is an immense responsibility. It means acting with purposeful intent to keep the waters clear, balanced, and flowing.

Here’s how :

Remove debris – Protecting your wealth from hidden risks : excessive fees, unmanaged taxes, and unnecessary expenses.

Strengthen the banks – Build safeguards like insurance, wills, and trusts to protect the structure of your financial ecosystem as it moves downstream.

Test the waters – Monitor your financial health, income streams, and spending patterns to ensure your river remains sustainable and high quality.

Being a river keeper isn’t about control – it’s about balance. Your job is to protect the river’s strength while allowing it to nourish the present.

Thinking Downstream : Planning Ahead

The best river keepers stay mindful of today’s conditions but always think downstream. They don’t just react to problems – they anticipate them.

Proactive tax planning, smart estate structures, and thoughtful investment strategies are the tools that will prevent blockages long before they appear.

In Indigenous Culture, the Seventh Generations Principle teaches that the choices we make today affect those seven generations after us. In the same way, you stand as the bridge between your ancestors’ resilience and your descendants’ future.

The Future of Your River

Eventually, your stretch of the river will end – and what happens next is up to you.

Some people choose for their river to flow outward into the ocean, supporting communities and causes through philanthropy. Other’s pass the current on to their children – perhaps as one simple, powerful stream, or one that splits into multiple branches to nourish several new paths.

Whatever form it takes, your river’s future depends on how you guide it today.

Becoming a Responsible River Keeper

Your role as a river keeper isn’t just to manage the flow – it’s to teach others how to do the same.

Just as a carpenter must apprentice before becoming a journeyman, the next generation must learn how to tend to the river : how to prevent blockages, strengthen the banks, and prepare for unseen bends ahead.

If you only focus on growing your wealth but neglect to pass on the wisdom of stewardship, the river’s current may one day run dry.

I make sure that I work with the younger generations of my clients, no matter what stage of life that they may be in, to ensure that they are learning and are equipped with all of the necessary tools for their situation today and for their future.

So remember the Seventh Generation Principle – your river began before you and, with care, will flow long after you. The question isn’t how much can you take from it – it’s how will you tend to it for those who will come next.

From Panic to Euphoria : Where Are You On the Investing Roller Coaster of Emotions?

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Markets are once again flirting with all-time highs. For some investors, it feels like the thrilling climb of a roller coaster. For others—especially those still recovering from recent dips—it feels like that slow, anxiety-inducing ascent before the next big drop. But here’s the truth: volatility is not the enemy. It’s part of the ride.

Whether the market is setting new records or pulling back, short-term moves are never the full story. What matters isn’t where we are in the cycle—but how you behave throughout it.

The Market Has Seen This Before

Despite numerous bear markets over the last century—including the crash of 2008, the COVID drop of 2020, and the tech wreck of the early 2000s—markets have always rebounded. Always.

– The 2008–09 crisis saw the S&P 500 fall 57%… and then double in the 48 months that followed.
– The 2020 COVID crash bottomed in March—and by the end of the year, the S&P was up 16%.
– Even in the brutal 2000–02 bear market, investors who stayed the course were rewarded once the dust settled.

Every single bear market has been followed by a bull market. The real challenge isn’t predicting the recovery—it’s staying invested long enough to experience it.

Where Are We Emotionally?

Take a look at the chart below from Russell Investments: The Market Cycle of Emotions.

Right now, many investors are likely hovering between relief and optimism. We’re past the fear and panic of 2022–23, and as portfolios start looking healthier, the temptation to second-guess your plan may creep in:

– “Should I sell while I’m up?”
– “Maybe I should wait for a pullback?”
– “Have we come too far, too fast?”

This kind of emotional second-guessing is exactly what derails long-term outcomes.

Remember: euphoria is the point of maximum financial risk, while despondency is the point of maximum financial opportunity. Most investors act in reverse—buying high and selling low—because they’re reacting to feelings instead of following a plan.

If you want to reach your destination, you need to stay in your seat through the highs and lows. Unbuckling mid-ride rarely ends well.

Volatility isn’t just about losses—it’s also the unpredictability of gains. The biggest up-days in market history often happen during periods of uncertainty, and they tend to cluster closely around market bottoms.

Missing just a few of those days can drastically lower long-term returns. That’s why trying to time the market is more dangerous than staying invested through the rough patches.

Time In The Market > Timing The Market

The most effective investors don’t try to sidestep volatility—they prepare for it. They diversify. They rebalance. They stay invested according to their goals, not their fears.

Whether you’re still accumulating wealth or already in retirement, the key is to have the right money in the right place:

– Long-term investments should stay invested.
– Short-term income needs should be allocated to safer, more stable assets.

This kind of “time segmentation” allows you to stay calm during downturns, knowing your immediate needs are covered while the rest of your money grows.

Final Thoughts : The Real Superpower

Market highs tend to bring out two common emotional mistakes:
1. Chasing (jumping in too late, driven by FOMO), or
2. Fleeing (selling out too early, afraid the top is in).

Avoid both.

The real superpower isn’t predicting tops or bottoms—it’s sticking to your plan through all the emotional highs and lows. Diversification, discipline, and time are your greatest allies. And they work best when you don’t get in their way.

For personalized guidance, contact me at info@financerx.ca.

Finding Calm in Market Storms : The Power of Shinrin-Yoku

/ Jesse Ogloff
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When market volatility leaves you feeling anxious, it might be time to step away from the screens and into the trees. The Japanese practice of Shinrin-Yoku, or “forest bathing,” is a simple yet powerful way to destress and reset your mind.

Shinrin-Yoku is all about immersing yourself in nature, allowing the sights, sounds, and smells of the forest to wash over you. Studies have shown that spending time in nature can lower cortisol levels, reduce blood pressure, and improve overall mood. In essence, it’s a natural antidote to the stress that comes with market fluctuations.

By taking a break to reconnect with nature, you’ll return to your financial challenges with a clearer mind and a refreshed perspective. Plus, the health benefits of forest bathing extend beyond stress relief, boosting your immune system and enhancing your creativity—both of which are invaluable for making sound financial decisions.

So, the next time the markets get rough, consider swapping your investment statements for a walk among the trees. Your mind—and your portfolio—might thank you.

For personalized guidance, contact me at info@financerx.ca.

What Just Happened? Breaking Down The Last Week.

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Markets took a hit after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2. The S&P 500 dropped more than 10% over two days, wiping out over $5 trillion in market value. This follows a tough first quarter, where the index was already down 5.6% — its worst start to the year in three years.

As of April 4, the S&P 500 had fallen 17.5% from its February highs, making this one of the fastest corrections in over a century. Investors were caught off guard, not just by the size of the tariffs, but also by the way they were applied. Rather than following typical trade rules, the U.S. targeted countries with large trade surpluses, leading to higher-than-expected tariffs in some areas. The result? Greater uncertainty, rising inflation fears, and talk of potential stagflation.

Some countries, including China, have already started to respond with their own retaliatory measures. In the days ahead, markets will be watching closely to see which countries are willing to negotiate — and which ones push back.

Canada Avoids New Tariffs (For Now)

Canada and Mexico were notably left out of the new tariffs. Trade under the USMCA agreement remains tariff-free, covering roughly 80% of Canadian exports. However, existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos are still in place.

Interestingly, Canada’s stock market has been a bright spot. The TSX gained 1.5% in the first quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 6%. With a federal election approaching, there’s growing momentum behind pro-growth policies. Longer term, Canada continues to offer structural strengths: a skilled workforce, rich natural resources, and clean, affordable energy. The TSX is also trading at a significant discount to the U.S. market, despite having similar earnings potential and multiple growth drivers ahead.

What to Watch Next

There are a few reasons for cautious optimism:

• Some U.S. senators are pushing back against Trump’s tariff authority, which could limit future actions.

• There’s a chance some tariffs could be reduced before they take effect on April 9.

• Legal challenges may emerge, as parts of the policy may not hold up in court.

• Finally, March’s employment data remains strong, suggesting the job market is holding up — for now.

When Markets Pull Back, Long-Term Investors Can Step Forward

Volatility and pullbacks can feel unsettling — but they’re often where long-term investors find their best opportunities. When market sentiment turns negative, prices can become disconnected from fundamentals. That creates moments where strong companies or sectors become available at a discount.

If you have a long-term plan and a well-diversified portfolio, downturns like this can be a time to reassess and rebalance — not to panic. Market corrections are part of the investment journey, and historically, they’ve often paved the way for future gains. In times like these, staying focused on your long-term goals is more important than ever.

Strategies for Canadians Amid U.S. Tariff Changes

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Another week, another round of tariff talk between the U.S. and its trading partners. If you’re wondering what that actually means for your wallet, your car, or your job—let’s break it down.

The U.S. recently reintroduced tariffs (taxes on imports) on certain automotive parts. There was a one-month pause, but that didn’t lead to any real change. Now, Canadian vehicles that use U.S. parts—or even U.S. vehicles made with Canadian or Mexican components—are at a disadvantage compared to cars from Europe or Asia.

As Canadians, we should all care about this because Canada’s auto industry, especially in Ontario, supports over 100,000 jobs. If tariffs make Canadian-made cars more expensive, that could lead to job losses, higher prices, and economic slowdowns.

There are many options as to how we should respond and I’d like to share some of my thoughts:

• Don’t: Tariff U.S. auto parts we depend on.

That would only raise production costs for Canadian carmakers—and hurt us more than the U.S.

• Avoid: A blanket tariff on U.S. vehicles. It would push up car prices in Canada and invite more U.S. retaliation. Plus, some U.S.-made cars still use Canadian parts.

If we’re smart, there are some alternative moves that we can make:

• Incentives to stay.

Offering tax breaks or credits to carmakers to keep plants in Canada could help soften the blow—as long as it doesn’t look like a subsidy that invites more tariffs from the U.S.

• Careful negotiation.

A new U.S. “reciprocal tariff” plan may be more measured than the previously threatened 25% tax on everything. Canada needs to tread carefully and use diplomacy to avoid escalation.

Canadian nationalism is at a multi-year high right now and we can all help, believe it or not — your choices matter. We can buy Canadian-made products, consider non-U.S. travel destinations whenever we are travelling, and support Canadian retailers and auto dealers.

This “vote with your wallet” approach is already happening—and (most importantly) it doesn’t trigger political backlash. In fact, a grassroots consumer shift could do more to influence U.S. economic policy than tariffs alone.

All-in-all, Canada needs to balance firm negotiation with strategic patience. Tariffs are costly for both sides—but consumer behavior, smart policy, and focused diplomacy might be our best bet to get the U.S. to ease off.

The next time you’re deciding where to buy your car—or even where to vacation—remember: your dollar can speak louder than a tariff.

Market Bubbles : Why We Get Caught Up and How to Stay Smart

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Ever heard the saying, “What goes up must come down”? That’s exactly what happens in market bubbles. Prices of stocks or other investments skyrocket, everyone rushes to buy, and then—boom—the bubble bursts, and prices crash. The tricky part? People rarely see it coming.

But what is a bubble, and why do they happen? More importantly, how can you protect yourself from getting caught up in one?

The Emotional Side of Investing

When we think about market bubbles, we usually picture stock prices climbing higher and higher. But the real force behind a bubble isn’t just numbers—it’s human emotion.

The biggest culprit? The fear of missing out (FOMO).

When you see your friends, neighbors, or coworkers making big money on an investment, it’s tempting to jump in too. Nobody wants to feel left behind. But this excitement can cause people to ignore warning signs. They stop asking, “Is this a smart investment?” and instead think, “If I don’t buy now, I’ll miss my chance!”

That’s how bubbles start: everyone wants in, demand surges, and prices rise far beyond what the investment is actually worth. But eventually, reality sets in—prices can’t stay high forever. When people finally realize this, they panic and sell, and the bubble pops.

New Trends, Same Mistakes

Most bubbles are fueled by something exciting and new. Whether it’s a new technology, a booming industry, or a “can’t-miss” investment, people get caught up in the hype.

Look at the internet in the late 1990s. Everyone knew it would change the world, and it did. But during the Dot-Com Bubble, investors threw money at any company with “.com” in its name, even if it had no real profits. Eventually, reality hit—many of those companies failed, and stock prices crashed.

The lesson? Just because something is new and exciting doesn’t mean it’s worth any price. Investing wisely means looking past the hype and asking, “Is this actually a good business?”

Big Companies Don’t Stay on Top Forever

Another mistake people make during bubbles is assuming that the biggest companies will always stay successful. History tells a different story.

Take Kodak, Xerox, and Polaroid—once giants in the business world, now barely relevant. Industries change, new competitors emerge, and technology evolves. Betting that today’s winners will always be on top is risky, especially if their stock prices are already extremely high.

If you’re investing in big-name companies, make sure you’re paying attention to their long-term potential—not just their recent success.

What Happens When the Bubble Bursts?

When a bubble pops, prices don’t just dip—they crash. Investors who bought in too late find themselves with big losses. Worse, many lose confidence and sell at the worst possible time.

The best investors stay calm and avoid getting caught up in the madness. Instead of jumping in when prices are high, they keep some cash on hand and wait for opportunities to buy when prices fall. It takes patience, but those who avoid the rush often come out ahead.

How to Avoid the Trap

So, how can you protect yourself from falling into a bubble? Here are some simple rules:

1. Don’t invest just because “everyone else is doing it.” If something feels too good to be true, it probably is.

2. Ask yourself if the investment makes sense. Is it a strong, profitable business, or just popular at the moment?

3. Be patient. Good investments don’t need to be rushed. If a stock has already skyrocketed, it may be too late.

4. Have a long-term plan. Instead of chasing quick profits, focus on building steady wealth over time.

5. Keep some cash available. When the bubble pops, there will be bargains—but only for those who are ready.

The Bottom Line

Bubbles happen because people get caught up in excitement and stop thinking critically. The key to avoiding them is to stay rational and not let emotions take over your investment decisions.

My specialty is to help investors stay focused on smart, long-term strategies instead of chasing the latest market trends. If you’re looking for guidance on building wealth safely and avoiding market traps, contact me at info@financerx.ca.

Are You Living Too Frugally?

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Many people assume that financial security is purely about numbers—having a stable income, a well-funded retirement plan, and an emergency cushion. But in reality, financial well-being is just as much about mindset as it is about money.

There are plenty of people who are in a strong financial position but still feel uneasy about spending, constantly worrying that they don’t have enough. They deny themselves experiences, avoid making financial moves that could improve their lives, and operate under an unnecessary sense of scarcity.

If this sounds familiar, the question you need to ask isn’t “Do I have enough?” but rather “Why do I feel like I don’t?”

The Scarcity Mentality: A Barrier to True Financial Freedom

A scarcity mentality is the persistent belief that your resources are limited, even when the numbers suggest otherwise. It creates an underlying fear of financial instability, making it hard to enjoy the money you’ve worked so hard to earn.

This way of thinking can manifest in different ways:

• Over-saving at the expense of enjoying life – Hesitating to take trips, make upgrades, or spend on meaningful experiences, even when it’s affordable.

• Paralysis in financial decisions – Avoiding investment opportunities or wealth-building strategies due to fear of loss.

• Chasing financial trends out of fear of missing out – Feeling pressure to jump into the latest stock, cryptocurrency, or investment trend to “keep up.”

The problem isn’t necessarily financial—it’s psychological. When people get stuck in a scarcity mindset, they often make decisions from a place of fear rather than logic, which can limit their potential and negatively impact their overall well-being.

Where Does This Fear Come From?

A scarcity mentality is often shaped by personal history and environment. Some common influences include:

• Growing up in a household where money was tight – Early financial stress can stick with people for life, even when they’re in a much better situation as adults.

• Life events that created financial uncertainty – Job loss, divorce, economic downturns, or unexpected setbacks can lead to long-term financial anxiety.

• The influence of social comparison – Constant exposure to other people’s wealth (or the illusion of it) can make individuals feel like they’re always behind, even if they’re in a great position.

• Cognitive biases that exaggerate financial risk – The human brain is wired to focus more on potential losses than potential gains, making it easy to fear worst-case scenarios that may never happen.

If left unaddressed, these factors can cause people to hold onto unnecessary financial fear, even when their financial reality is stable and secure.

Breaking Free from an Unnecessary Scarcity Mindset

The first step in shifting out of a scarcity mindset is recognizing it. Ask yourself:

• Are my financial fears based on facts or just feelings?

• Am I holding back from things I can afford due to irrational concerns?

• Have I let past experiences dictate my current financial choices?

If you notice a pattern of fear-driven decision-making, it may be time to challenge those thoughts and make a conscious effort to change your approach.

1. Reframe Your Financial Perspective

Whenever an anxious financial thought arises, step back and ask:

• Is this worry based on real numbers, or just fear?

• If the worst-case scenario did happen, would I truly be unprepared?

• Am I focusing too much on what could go wrong instead of what is likely?

2. Stop Letting Fear Control Your Financial Choices

If your financial plan is solid, give yourself permission to enjoy what you’ve built. Money is a resource meant to provide security and enhance your quality of life—not something to be stockpiled out of fear.

3. Get an Objective Financial Perspective

One of the best ways to combat financial anxiety is to work with a fiduciary professional, like a Certified Financial Planner, who can provide an objective view of your situation. A trusted CFP can help you see where you truly stand, ensuring your decisions align with logic rather than unnecessary fear.

Make Sure You’re Living the Life You Can Actually Afford

If you have the means to enjoy life but are holding yourself back, it may be time to adjust your financial mindset. A good financial plan isn’t just about making sure you’ll never run out of money—it’s also about making sure you use your money wisely to build a fulfilling life.

There’s a difference between responsible planning and living in fear. Make sure you’re not letting an outdated mindset rob you of the life and retirement you can genuinely afford.

For personalized guidance, contact me at info@financerx.ca.

Uncertainty Around Proposed Capital Gains Tax Changes in Canada

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Earlier in 2024, the Liberal government proposed significant changes to Canada’s capital gains tax rules. The plan aimed to increase the capital gains inclusion rate from 50% to 66.67% for corporations and trusts and introduce a higher inclusion rate for individuals on annual capital gains exceeding $250,000. The changes were set to take effect starting June 25, 2024.

However, the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of Parliament have stalled the legislative process required to implement these changes. As of now, the proposed adjustments have not become law. This legislative pause has created uncertainty for taxpayers, especially those preparing for year-end financial planning.

Initially, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) signaled that it would apply the proposed rates to capital gains realized after June 25, 2024. With Parliament effectively reset, any motions related to the tax changes would need to be reintroduced when the House of Commons resumes. In the meantime, tax professionals advise individuals and corporations to prepare for the possibility of increased capital gains taxes, with the potential for refunds should the legislation fail to pass.

Until the government provides further clarification, taxpayers are encouraged to consult their financial advisors to ensure their investment and tax strategies align with both current rules and potential changes.

For personalized guidance on navigating uncertain times, contact me at info@financerx.ca.

Riding Market Waves : A Surfer’s Guide to Investing

/ Jesse Ogloff
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Investing is like surfing. You don’t control the waves, but you can position yourself to catch them. Patience, preparation, and staying calm in turbulent waters are essential. It’s also about understanding that waves come in cycles, and missing one doesn’t mean you’ve missed your chance entirely. The key is to stay in the water and ride the wave when the opportunity arises.

What characteristic does a surfer need more than anything else? If you said adaptability, you’d be right. Surfing is about responding to the environment—reading the waves, positioning yourself, and timing your movements. Investing is remarkably similar.

When you paddle out into the ocean, you’re placing yourself in a vast, unpredictable environment. There will be periods of calm where nothing seems to happen, times of turbulence when waves crash relentlessly, and moments of exhilaration when you finally catch the perfect wave. Successful surfers don’t leave the water just because conditions aren’t ideal—they wait, they prepare, and they adapt. The same principles apply to investing.

Preparation: Choosing the Right Spot and Equipment

Before a surfer ever catches a wave, there’s preparation: selecting the right beach, the right board, and understanding the tide and weather conditions. Similarly, before you invest, you need to know your goals, assess your risk tolerance, and choose the right financial tools. Are you aiming for steady, small gains (the equivalent of riding gentle waves on a longboard), or are you comfortable chasing bigger, riskier opportunities (the bigger, thrilling waves that require a shortboard)?

Just as every beach and wave is different, every investor’s journey is unique. This is where a financial advisor acts as a guide—helping you identify the “surf spot” that matches your financial aspirations. An advisor ensures you have the right tools and strategies in place before you paddle out into the financial waters.

The Waiting Game: Patience is Key

The ocean doesn’t deliver perfect waves on demand, and the market doesn’t deliver constant returns. Surfers spend a lot of time floating, watching, and waiting for the right wave to come along. It requires patience and trust in the process.

Investors, too, must resist the urge to act impulsively. It’s tempting to chase every market trend or head to the beach when the conditions aren’t working. However, those who wait patiently and stick to their plan are better positioned to catch the next big wave of opportunity.

Timing: Don’t Chase the Wave—Position Yourself for It

Catching a wave requires positioning, timing, and confidence. Paddle too early, and you’ll tire yourself out. Paddle too late, and the wave will pass you by. The same goes for investing. Trying to “time the market” perfectly is nearly impossible. Instead, focus on positioning yourself with a long-term strategy so you’re ready to benefit from the market’s natural momentum.

One of the biggest mistakes surfers make is paddling frantically toward every wave they see. The same goes for investors who try to chase every hot stock or trend. It’s exhausting and rarely effective. Instead, surfers watch and anticipate, recognizing that the ocean will always offer another wave. Likewise, investors must understand that markets move in cycles, and missing one opportunity doesn’t mean they’ve missed their chance entirely.

Staying Calm in the Swell: Navigating Market Volatility

When you’re out in the ocean, not every wave is rideable. Some are too big, too small, or don’t have the right form. Surfers learn to navigate the swell, staying calm even when waves crash over them. Investing also has its share of volatility. Markets rise and fall, sometimes dramatically. The key is to stay calm, keep your eyes on the horizon, and avoid rash decisions.

For example, when a wave crashes unexpectedly, an inexperienced surfer might panic and paddle back to shore. Similarly, investors often sell their holdings during a market downturn, locking in losses and missing out on the recovery. Experienced surfers know that poor waves—like negative markets—are temporary. The best approach is to stay in the water and focus on the next opportunity.

The Big Picture: Riding the Wave to Success

When a surfer catches the perfect wave, it’s the result of preparation, patience, and resilience. It’s not just about the ride; it’s about all the effort that went into being in the right place at the right time. Investing is no different. Long-term success comes from sticking to a well-thought-out plan, staying disciplined during turbulent periods, and positioning yourself to take advantage of the market’s natural upward momentum.

The Bottom Line

Surfing and investing share a fundamental truth: you can’t control the waves, but you can control how you respond to them. With patience, preparation, and a steady hand, you’ll be ready to ride the wave when the opportunity arises. So, stay in the water, trust your plan, and keep your eyes on the horizon—the next big wave might be closer than you think.

Email me at info@financerx.ca.

Don’t Believe the [Negative] Hype

/ Jesse Ogloff
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As humans, we have ancient mental traits that helped us survive a millennia ago but now these same traits often just get in the way. Imagine yourself living in a cave, as one of your ancient ancestors, and you’re preparing to go on a hunt but something seems off. You are hearing noises outside that deter you from wanting to leave the comfort of your “home.” You have two choices: Leave the safety of your cave and risk death; or skip the hunt, go hungry, and wait for the potential danger to pass. The majority of people would rather stay home to live another day.

The next day, the cognitive rollercoaster isn’t over yet as, most people would have an increased sense of nervousness when they attempt to leave the cave. But now there will also be another negative thought that combats the nervousness, they will have an added fear of failure that will start to seep into their mind. When that fear of failure overtakes the fear of the outside then they will leave the comfort of their home and venture into the unknown, albeit on edge and with heightened senses.

Humans have evolved over hundreds of millions of years to pay extra attention to negative experiences (especially life and death situations) by reacting to them intensely, remembering them well, and over time becoming even more sensitive to them.

What does this have to do with you, today? We can think of a similar situation albeit more modern. Imagine you’re driving on the highway and someone cuts you off and narrowly misses you. You slam on your brakes and feel a tense feeling of anger rise up within you. This sort of feeling is one that can stay with you and can eventually ruin your whole day. You might be less productive or distracted, which only compounds the problem. This experience might stay with you for awhile and effect your driving habits for a period of time after the actual event.

Why does one negative experience ruin an otherwise great day?

Why does this experience have such a powerful effect on us?

Why is it that this experience of short-term unhappiness is invested into long-term unhappiness?

Research has proven that our brains have evolved to react much more strongly to negative experiences than positive ones. This negativity bias can influence how we feel, think, and act, and can have some undesirable effects on our psychological state.

We can think about this in the context of investing and investment news. A downturn in the markets creates the same fear response as the examples above. This response might have saved the life of your ancestors but the market isn’t influenced by your behavior and a bear market isn’t a life-threatening situation. Don’t get me wrong, this year it has been very difficult to be an investor with the S&P500 currently sitting at a loss of 24% year-to-date, but I bet that you don’t remember that this same market has provided investors with returns of 27%, 16%, and 29% over the course of 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively. People tend to forget that the average annual return of the S&P500 in USD over the course of the last 100 years, but also the last 40 years, equates to around 10% per year and this accounts for every bear and bull market that we have experienced along the way.

Modern news agencies spend thousands of dollars on studies to examine what keeps your eyes on the screen and they know how to tap into our primal negative bias instincts. You’ll watch more if the market pundits talk about how the sky is falling or today’s Armageddon-du-jour. You watch more because you believe that they are going to present you with a secret that no one else knows but this is simply useless noise. The headlines are not actionable and is far from being personalized to your own specific situation. A bear market to someone accumulating assets is very different than to someone who is decumulating assets. The news agencies know just as much as the rest of us, no more about the future than you or I. It’s a lot easier if you simply come to terms with the fact that the market is uncertain, but without uncertainty then there would be no opportunity. There are factors that you can control like your level of tolerance to investment losses, such as the percentage of equities in your portfolio and your level of diversification.

Another way to get through these periods of time is by creating a financial plan to achieve your goals. People have a hard time planning though because, just like the market, the future is also uncertain. Think about all of the unexpected turns your life has taken and the possibilities that those turns have opened up. While you couldn’t have predicted the outcomes of the decisions you have made, you know how to gauge your feelings about the risks and opportunities being presented to you. The same goes for planning; you are making the best guess at present for the future and the longer the time horizon that you are trying to plan for will increase the potential variance of the outcome. You have to deal with factors that are out of your control, such as the return of the markets, interest rates, exchange rates, and other worldly factors but also personal factors like moving, changing careers, or births and deaths in your family. The longer the time that you are trying to plan for then the increasing probability that your outcome will be incorrect. This is the reason that plans are useless but the repeated planning process is invaluable. It allows you to set a course, which will be correct for a period of time, but then will require regular course corrections to account for broad market changes, personal life changes, and changes to your goals.

If you’ve done the best you can then go easy on yourself. It’s not the decisions you make, but how you make decisions. Investing, like life, is a process. If you have a plan and follow that plan then you’ve put yourself in the best position to achieve success. Try to do your best not to fall prey to your primal instincts of being negatively biased. Don’t dwell but learn from your disappointments and celebrate your successes.

Email me at info@financerx.ca.