As we reach the halfway point of 2026, it’s tempting to judge the year by its headlines like geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, questions around inflation, interest rate speculation, and artificial intelligence dominating technology stocks. Record highs in some markets while others quietly outperformed.

If it feels like there’s been no shortage of reasons to worry, you’re right. Yet despite everything that’s happened over the past six months, global markets have continued moving higher. That may seem surprising at first—but history suggests it shouldn’t.

One of the greatest misconceptions in investing is believing markets wait for certainty before moving forward. In reality, they rarely do. Markets continuously absorb new information, adjust expectations, and move on long before the news cycle does. That’s why successful investing has never been about predicting the next headline. It’s about having a plan that doesn’t depend on predicting headlines at all.

The Story Behind the Numbers

The first half of the year has been a reminder of just how unpredictable markets can be. The S&P 500 reached new highs after stumbling earlier this spring as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions. Technology companies rebounded strongly, while emerging markets quietly became one of the year’s strongest performers. Meanwhile, many investors who expected gold to provide protection during global uncertainty actually saw it lose value during the conflict, while equities continued climbing. 

Perhaps the biggest lesson isn’t which investment performed best. It’s that it is nearly impossible to predict these outcomes. Every January, financial institutions publish forecasts identifying the sectors, countries, or asset classes they expect to lead. By June, those predictions are often forgotten because markets had other plans. The first half of 2026 was another reminder that leadership changes quickly. Trying to guess tomorrow’s winners often means missing today’s opportunities.

Why Diversification Still Matters

Over the past five years, international value stocks have quietly outperformed many of the areas investors have spent the most time talking about. That’s important because it reinforces a lesson that doesn’t get enough attention: The best-performing investments are often the ones receiving the least attention. No one consistently knows whether the next five years will belong to U.S. stocks, international markets, emerging economies, large companies, or smaller businesses. Because we don’t know, we don’t try to guess. Instead, we build globally diversified portfolios designed to participate wherever opportunities appear. Diversification isn’t exciting. But investing rarely rewards excitement.

Interest Rates, Inflation and the Questions Everyone Is Asking

Another common question this year has been: “When will interest rates come down?”

The honest answer is that nobody knows. The Federal Reserve (US) and The Bank of Canada have continued holding rates steady while inflation remains stubbornly above target and economic data continues sending mixed signals. Markets have repeatedly adjusted expectations for future rate cuts. This is another reminder that markets price in expectations almost instantly. By the time news becomes obvious, markets have usually moved ahead. Rather than trying to predict central bank decisions, we focus on building portfolios that can weather a wide range of economic environments.

Investing Isn’t About Winning This Year

One of my favorite reminders is that none of us are investing for 2026. We’re investing for retirement, for children’s education, for buying a home, for financial independence, for the ability to spend more time with family.

Markets will always have good years, disappointing years, and years that feel confusing. Your financial plan shouldn’t require you to predict which one comes next. Instead, it should provide confidence that you’re making steady progress toward goals that matter regardless of what the market does this month. That’s why every recommendation we make starts with your life—not with the market.

Time Is the Advantage Most Investors Underestimate

Many people believe successful investors have superior forecasting abilities. In reality, they often have superior patience. Markets reward those who remain invested through uncertainty. Every correction, every geopolitical event, every recession, and every recovery has reminded us of the same lesson: temporary uncertainty is the price investors pay for long-term growth. Trying to avoid every decline usually means missing many of the strongest recoveries.

As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson once said: “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.”

It’s not supposed to be exciting. It’s supposed to work.

Looking Ahead

No one knows what the second half of 2026 will bring. There will almost certainly be more headlines that make investors uncomfortable because there always are. What gives me confidence isn’t knowing what’s coming next. It’s knowing that successful investing has never depended on knowing what’s coming next. It has depended on having a thoughtful financial plan, maintaining a diversified portfolio, controlling the things we can control, and allowing time to do the heavy lifting. That’s exactly what we’ll continue doing.

Thank you, as always, for trusting me to be part of your financial journey.

Have a wonderful summer,

Jesse Ogloff, B.Comm, PFP, CFP, CIM, CFDS

Associate Wealth Advisor / Associate Portfolio Manager

CIBC Wood Gundy

---

Why Where Your ETF Lives Matters More Than You Think

Most investors spend their time deciding what to invest in. S&P 500 or global? Growth or value? Active or passive? But there’s a quieter question—one that rarely gets asked: Where does your investment actually live? Because when it comes to ETFs, location isn’t just geography… it’s taxation. And depending on how your portfolio is structured, that tax can either be minimized—or quietly compound against you for decades.

What Is an ETF (And Why Most Investors Use Them)?

An ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a basket of investments that trades on a stock exchange—just like a single stock. Instead of buying one company, you’re buying hundreds or even thousands at once. For example, an ETF tracking the S&P 500 gives you exposure to companies like Apple Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com Inc.—all in a single purchase. Some of the benefits of ETFs are broad diversification, low cost, and simple & scalable exposure to global markets. But one issue is that two ETFs can look identical on the surface but can produce different outcomes, simply because of how they are structured or where they are domiciled.

The Structural Difference: U.S. vs Canadian-Domiciled ETFs

A U.S.-domiciled ETF (like VTI or VOO) is listed in the U.S. and holds underlying US securities directly. A Canadian-domiciled ETF (like XUU or VFV) is listed in Canada and provides U.S. exposure inside a Canadian fund structure. They may track the same index and they may hold the same companies but the tax treatment is not the same—especially depending on which type of account you use.

The Tax You Don’t See: U.S. Withholding Tax

When U.S. companies pay dividends to Canadian investors, the U.S. government applies a 15% withholding tax. This is where account type starts to matter.

TFSA: Tax-Free… But Not Fully Efficient

The Tax-Free Savings Account is one of the most powerful tools Canadians have but when it comes to U.S. investments, there’s a limitation. The issue is that, for Canadians, U.S. dividends are subject to 15% withholding tax and this taxation within a TFSA is not recoverable. This means that if your ETF generates $1,000 in dividends, you lose $150 permanently.

RRSP: The Cross-Border Sweet Spot

The Registered Retirement Savings Plan is where cross-border planning starts to work in your favor because of the Canada–U.S. tax treaty, the IRS recognizes RRSPs as retirement accounts. The result is that there are no U.S. withholding tax on dividends from U.S. domiciled ETFs, which results in you receiving the entire dividend. So, if your ETF generates $1,000 in dividends → you keep the full $1,000. It is very important to note that this benefit only applies to U.S.-domiciled ETFs. If you use a Canadian domiciled ETF that provides U.S. exposure, the withholding tax is applied inside the fund—and you don’t see it.

Non-Registered Accounts: Not Perfect, But Recoverable

A non-registered account doesn’t avoid withholding tax upfront—but it does give you a mechanism to recover it. As a Canadian, you still are required to pay the 15% withholding tax but you receive a foreign tax credit when you file your Canadian tax return. This results in your avoiding double taxation but you still have to pay Canadian income tax on the income that you earn.

So… What Should You Actually Do?

This isn’t about chasing perfection. It’s about being understanding your investments and being intentional with placement. Use your non-registered account with awareness of tax reporting and structure. Use your RRSP for U.S.-domiciled ETFs when appropriate. Use your TFSA for Canadian equities or growth-focused investments with lower dividend yield

Final Thought

Most investors don’t fall short because they chose the wrong ETF. They fall short because of unnecessary tax drag, reactive decisions during volatility, or a lack of structure behind their portfolio. This is one of the rare areas where a small adjustment can create a permanent tailwind for your NET returns.

Take 15 minutes this week and ask:

• Where are my U.S. investments currently held?
• Am I unintentionally losing withholding tax in my TFSA?
• Is my RRSP positioned to take advantage of the tax treaty?

You don’t need to overhaul everything overnight but tightening the structure—even slightly—can improve outcomes for decades to come.

Jesse Ogloff, B.Comm, PFP, CFP, CIM, CFDS

Associate Wealth Advisor / Associate Portfolio Manager

CIBC Wood Gundy

---