These days it is not easy being a retail investor. No matter where you look there seems to be negative news everywhere but do not let short-term thinking cloud your long-term judgement. There have been many instances in previous articles that I have talked about market volatility and ensuring you have a plan for market volatility. This is one of those times.
If you are reliant on the income that your portfolio produces then you should have enough cash on the side-lines to get you through a potential bear market. If you don’t have the cash then you could always utilize a credit facility like a line of credit, but this option is contingent on your personal feelings of debt. If you do not have an existing plan then now is the time to start thinking and preparing for a potential bear market and minimizing the amount of shares that you will have to sell if we continue to see further temporary losses.
If you are still accumulating assets then this should be seen as an opportunity. If you are able to, draw in your spending habits and allocate a larger proportion to investment. The S&P500 closed at a value of 3,991 on Monday, May 9, which is a 2022 YTD return of -16%. The last time that the S&P500 experienced this value was at the end of March 2021. Negative market volatility is like having a time machine that can take you back to the past and allow you invest at former levels.
Let’s not forget that this volatility is completely normal and has been expected. The S&P500 has rewarded investors by providing annual returns of 29%, 16%, and 27% in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectfully. The average annual S&P500 return from 1980 to 2021 is 9.4%. We can’t expect the returns of the past few years to continue every year and we actually should not want them to continue at such high levels compared to the average. The longer that a market continues to experience abnormally higher returns than the long-term average will usually result in a larger than normal downturn at some point in the future. Once this current correction and transition is over, the global economy will likely be in a better position.
Looking at the past 72 years (from 1928 – 2021), on average, the S&P500 has experienced
- A correction once every 2 years (a decline of 10% from the most recent market high)
- A bear market once every 7 years (a decline of 20% from the most recent market high)
- A crash once every 12 years (a decline of 30% from the most recent market high)
In Canada, we experience snow almost every year depending on where you live. Think of our Canadian winter experience like a market correction because it happens almost as often. When we feel our first snowflake of the year, do you start stocking up on food, fuel, and all of the essentials for the next ice age? No, that would be silly, we bundle up and we continue living our life. Your portfolio should be prepared for corrections and bear markets the same way that we have to dig our warmer clothing out of storage for the winter months. We are in the midst of a market snowfall right now but we will get through it and eventually the spring sun will be upon us again.

Want to chat about it? Email me at info@financerx.ca.





