We are getting closer to the end of 2021 and the S&P500 index has put on an impressive year-to-date run of about 25%. November 18 marked the 66th record close for the S&P500 in 2021, with a closing value of 4,704.54, and the year isn’t over yet. The only other year in history that has a greater number of record closing highs is 1995, which had 77. My observation about years, such as this year, that result in lower than average negative volatility is that people suffer from amnesia about normal, and completely healthy, periods of market decline.
The monthly decline for the S&P500 in September 2021 was -4.65% and I can’t tell you how many clients had immediate anxiety that the value on their September statement had a lower value than their August statement. My answer to every client was the same, “has something materially change in your life? If nothing has changed then there is no reason to panic or change your investments. The market pulls back, on average, 14.3% every year at some point during the year so September’s decline was actually only a third of the average decline that we experience every year. If the decline continues into a bear market then our bear market income strategy is already in place and ready so your income will remain unchanged and uninterrupted.”
These calls prompted me to provide a bit of a history lesson; 75 Years of Bear Markets. Taking the direct definition from Investopedia, “a bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs.” Over the course of the last 75 years we have experienced 16 bear markets and all of them have had a variety of lengths and temporary declines. This works out to an average occurrence of a bear market about every 5 years. The average bear market decline is -30% but there have been numerous times where the decline has only touched the official -20% mark mid-day but it also has been as traumatizing as -50% (2000). The average duration from the market peak to the beginning of the recovery has been around 13 months but it has been as short as 1 month or as long as 3 years. I’m going to say this again so that it can sink in, the average decline experienced in a bear market is -30% and it happens, on average, once every 5 years. If you aren’t absolutely confident that you won’t make an emotional decision and sell at a loss once you see your portfolio temporarily lose 1/3 of it’s value then investing in equities might not be for you. If you make the wrong decision and sell at the wrong time then it may be a mistake that you will never recover from. Bear markets are impossible to predict but they are something that you can plan for. Having a knowledgeable advisor in your corner, who has seen these types of markets before, can also be a big help to get you through the emotional experience that comes with a bear market.

If you are reliant on the reoccurring income from your investment portfolio then one option is to keep enough liquid cash reserves (or cash equivalents) on hand to get you through the worst of the decline so that you can shut off the income from your investment portfolio and allow it to recover. Another option for investors that do not want to keep a lot of cash on hand (especially in our current low interest rate environment) is to have access to a low interest rate line of credit, which can be utilized to replace the regular income from your portfolio. In terms of taking advantage of lower prices, you might not have any extra money to add to your portfolio but you can switch your portfolio’s dividends to reinvestment so that you are still purchasing additional shares of great companies at depressed prices.
If you are still accumulating assets then any bear market is a buying opportunity and you should never let the opportunity pass you by, even though your emotions may be screaming otherwise. Shelby Cullom Davis, who was an American businessman, investor and philanthropist, stated it perfectly when he said, “you make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” The fact is that you will probably never see these “on-sale” prices again for the great companies that make up the market so do not let the buying opportunity pass you by. Look back at the chart I provided and look at some of the values of the S&P500 in the “Market Trough” column and now compare that to the closing value of 4,704.54 on November 18, 2021. Looking at the most recent bear market, which was a result of CoVid, if you would have taken advantage of that buying opportunity then you have experienced a gain of over 100% in about a year and a half.
No one can tell you when the next bear market will be, what will cause it, or how long it will take to recover but I can tell you with 100% certainty that there will be another one at some point in the future, we will get through it, and the market will achieve additional record highs after it is over.
If you need help preparing your own personal bear market income strategy then reach out to info@financerx.ca.







