As we reach the halfway point of 2026, it’s tempting to judge the year by its headlines like geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, questions around inflation, interest rate speculation, and artificial intelligence dominating technology stocks. Record highs in some markets while others quietly outperformed.

If it feels like there’s been no shortage of reasons to worry, you’re right. Yet despite everything that’s happened over the past six months, global markets have continued moving higher. That may seem surprising at first—but history suggests it shouldn’t.

One of the greatest misconceptions in investing is believing markets wait for certainty before moving forward. In reality, they rarely do. Markets continuously absorb new information, adjust expectations, and move on long before the news cycle does. That’s why successful investing has never been about predicting the next headline. It’s about having a plan that doesn’t depend on predicting headlines at all.

The Story Behind the Numbers

The first half of the year has been a reminder of just how unpredictable markets can be. The S&P 500 reached new highs after stumbling earlier this spring as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions. Technology companies rebounded strongly, while emerging markets quietly became one of the year’s strongest performers. Meanwhile, many investors who expected gold to provide protection during global uncertainty actually saw it lose value during the conflict, while equities continued climbing. 

Perhaps the biggest lesson isn’t which investment performed best. It’s that it is nearly impossible to predict these outcomes. Every January, financial institutions publish forecasts identifying the sectors, countries, or asset classes they expect to lead. By June, those predictions are often forgotten because markets had other plans. The first half of 2026 was another reminder that leadership changes quickly. Trying to guess tomorrow’s winners often means missing today’s opportunities.

Why Diversification Still Matters

Over the past five years, international value stocks have quietly outperformed many of the areas investors have spent the most time talking about. That’s important because it reinforces a lesson that doesn’t get enough attention: The best-performing investments are often the ones receiving the least attention. No one consistently knows whether the next five years will belong to U.S. stocks, international markets, emerging economies, large companies, or smaller businesses. Because we don’t know, we don’t try to guess. Instead, we build globally diversified portfolios designed to participate wherever opportunities appear. Diversification isn’t exciting. But investing rarely rewards excitement.

Interest Rates, Inflation and the Questions Everyone Is Asking

Another common question this year has been: “When will interest rates come down?”

The honest answer is that nobody knows. The Federal Reserve (US) and The Bank of Canada have continued holding rates steady while inflation remains stubbornly above target and economic data continues sending mixed signals. Markets have repeatedly adjusted expectations for future rate cuts. This is another reminder that markets price in expectations almost instantly. By the time news becomes obvious, markets have usually moved ahead. Rather than trying to predict central bank decisions, we focus on building portfolios that can weather a wide range of economic environments.

Investing Isn’t About Winning This Year

One of my favorite reminders is that none of us are investing for 2026. We’re investing for retirement, for children’s education, for buying a home, for financial independence, for the ability to spend more time with family.

Markets will always have good years, disappointing years, and years that feel confusing. Your financial plan shouldn’t require you to predict which one comes next. Instead, it should provide confidence that you’re making steady progress toward goals that matter regardless of what the market does this month. That’s why every recommendation we make starts with your life—not with the market.

Time Is the Advantage Most Investors Underestimate

Many people believe successful investors have superior forecasting abilities. In reality, they often have superior patience. Markets reward those who remain invested through uncertainty. Every correction, every geopolitical event, every recession, and every recovery has reminded us of the same lesson: temporary uncertainty is the price investors pay for long-term growth. Trying to avoid every decline usually means missing many of the strongest recoveries.

As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson once said: “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow.”

It’s not supposed to be exciting. It’s supposed to work.

Looking Ahead

No one knows what the second half of 2026 will bring. There will almost certainly be more headlines that make investors uncomfortable because there always are. What gives me confidence isn’t knowing what’s coming next. It’s knowing that successful investing has never depended on knowing what’s coming next. It has depended on having a thoughtful financial plan, maintaining a diversified portfolio, controlling the things we can control, and allowing time to do the heavy lifting. That’s exactly what we’ll continue doing.

Thank you, as always, for trusting me to be part of your financial journey.

Have a wonderful summer,

Jesse Ogloff, B.Comm, PFP, CFP, CIM, CFDS

Associate Wealth Advisor / Associate Portfolio Manager

CIBC Wood Gundy

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